Technical Outlook- AUDJPY, NZDJPY and AUDNZD

Increase in commodity prices, coupled with recent advance in Chinese Industrial production, outpaced optimistic Japanese details, damaging the JPY against commodity currencies, mainly AUD, NZD and CAD. Moreover, the bi-annual Financial Stability Report by the RBNZ, published on Tuesday, provided considerable strength to the NZD.

Also Read: Global Economic Releases To Drive The Forex Market

Meanwhile, the following is a brief technical overview of AUDJPY, NZDJPY and AUDNZD.

AUDJPY

AUDJPY extended its break of 200-day SMA, the first since January, during Wednesday, also surpassing the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its November - February decline. The pair now targets 97.00 horizontal resistance mark, breaking which resistance line of the steeply rising ascending trend-channel, also encompassing 61.8% Fibo, near 97.65-70 region, could become important resistance to determine pair’s near-term moves. Should the pair surpass 97.70, also breaks the 98.30, it could rally to 76.4% Fibo, near 99.60 before testing the psychological magnet of 100.00. On the downside, 200-day SMA, near 95.50, could provide immediate support to the pair, breaking which the channel support, near 94.80, and the 38.2% Fibo, at 94.50, are likely consecutive supports for the pair before it could plunge towards testing 93.00 support level.

NZDJPY

Although, the pair stretched its decline below 200-day SMA during Monday, the RBNZ announcement pulled back the NZDJPY from 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its December – February decline; however, the same SMA, near 89.20 presently, seems restricting the pair’s further advance currently. On the break of 89.20, the pair could rally towards 90, 90.20 (61.8% Fibo), 90.70 and the 91.30 before it could test the descending trend-line resistance, connecting December – April highs, also encompassing 76.4% Fibo, near 91.70. On the downside, the 38.2% Fibo, near 87.80 and the 87.20 are likely immediate supports for the pair, breaking which 23.6% Fibo, near 86.50 and the 86.00 psychological mark are important support levels for the pair. Given the pair’s ability to close below 86.00, it could target 84.70 on the downside.

AUDNZD

Even if the rate cut speculations fueled AUDNZD towards surpassing the 200-day SMA on Monday, resistance line of the steeply rising ascending trend channel, coupled with the stability report announcement, pulled back the pair towards re-testing 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its October – April decline, near 1.0800 mark. From the current level, 1.0740, 1.0680 and 1.0650 (including 50% Fibo) are likely supports for the pair. Should the pair trades below 1.0650, the 1.0600 psychological mark, also encompassing the channel support, could restrict additional decline by the pair. However, a sustained break of 1.0600 could weaken the pair considerable towards testing 38.2% Fibo, near 1.0500, before it could test 1.0460 and the 1.04000. On the upside, channel resistance, near 1.0870 could become an important resistance for the pair, breaking which 1.0930 and 1.0990 – 1.1000, including 76.4% Fibo, are likely consecutive resistances for the pair. On the break of 1.1000, chances of pair’s near-term decline get negated and it could rally to 1.1100 mark before targeting the 1.1200 region.

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Anil Panchal
Market Analyst
Admiral Markets

At any use of the analytical material taken from the site of company Admiral Markets, and the secondary publication on any other resources, the rights to intellectual property for a dealing center «Admiral Markets», the reference to the company site is obligatory.

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